MAIN MACROECONOMIC FORECAST INDICES OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN FOR 2004-2006

  UNITS 2004 2005 2006
REAL SECTOR
GDP in market prices
mln. AZN
8529.9
12522.4
18037.3
real growth rate
%
110.1
126.4
134.5
deflyator
%
108.4
116.2
107.1
special weight of private sector
%
73.5
76.0
81.0
Non-oil sector, GDP, in market prices
mln. AZN
5858.2
7001.5
8229.4
real growth rate
%
 
108.3
111.9
deflyator
%
 
110.4
105.0
Oil sector, GDP, in main prices *
mln. AZN
2672.4
5520.9
9808.0
real growth rate
%
103.0
166.3
163.1
deflyator
%
120.7
124.2
108.9
Share of oil sector in GDP
%
31.3
44.1
54.4
GDP production structure:
 
 
 
 
Industry
mln. AZN
3268.4
6190.4
10504.5
real growth rate
%
104.3
156.9
156.7
deflyator
%
117.5
120.7
108.3
including:
 
 
 
 
Non-oil industry
mln. AZN
596.7
669.5
696.6
real growth rate
%
110.1
114.8
104.1
deflyator
%
104.8
97.7
99.9
Agriculture
mln. AZN
937.3
1145.5
1252.3
real growth rate
%
105.0
107.5
100.9
deflyator
%
100.5
113.7
108.3
Construction
mln. AZN
1062.1
1171.6
1334.4
real growth rate
%
136.9
102.0
108.5
deflyator
%
96.7
108.1
105.0
Trade
mln. AZN
655.5
832.0
1038.9
real growth rate
%
113.0
113.2
113.5
deflyator
%
114.4
112.1
110.0
Transport
mln. AZN
613.9
670.5
998.8
real growth rate
%
104.6
111.5
149.0
deflyator
%
104.3
98.0
100.0
Communication
mln. AZN
198.5
261.6
324.3
real growth rate
%
135.8
136.0
124.0
deflyator
%
96.6
96.9
100.0
Social and other services
mln. AZN
1178.5
1304.3
1433.5
real growth rate
%
104.0
101.5
101.7
deflyator
%
111.2
109.0
108.1
Product and import net taxes
mln. AZN
615.7
946.5
1150.6
GDP structure (in current prices)
%
100.0
100.0
100.0
Industry
%
38.3
49.4
58.2
Agriculture
%
11.0
9.1
6.9
Construction
%
12.5
9.4
7.4
Services
%
31.0
24.5
21.0
Trade
%
7.7
6.6
5.8
Transport
%
7.2
5.4
5.5
Communication
%
2.3
2.1
1.8
Social and informal services
%
13.8
10.4
7.9
Product and import net taxes
%
7.2
7.6
6.4
INCOMES OF POPULATION AND PRICES
Population (up to the end of the period, including the occupied lands)
thsd
8347.0
8436.4
8532.7
Population (average annual, including the occupied lands)
thsd
8306.4
8273.4
8364.7
Volume of per capita GDP
AZN
1026.9
1513.6
2156.4
USD
1045.0
1610.2
2413.9
Retail trade turnover
mln. USD
3730
4622.6
5760.3
real growth rate
%
113.0
113.2
113.5
price index
%
107.8
109.5
109.8
Money incomes of population
mln. USD
6349.0
7618.5
9949.8
Nominal growth
%
123.2
127.0
130.6
Average monthly wage
AZN
96.7
123.6
141.3
Nominal growth
%
124.9
121.9
114.3
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENT BALANCE
Current accounts balance
mln. USD
-2,589
167
3,708
Goods and services balance
mln. ABŞ $
-2,077
1,329
5,822
Export of goods and services
mln. USD
4,235
8,332
13,955
Export of non-oil products and services
mln. USD
1,003
1,449
1,879
Nominal growth
%
24.4
44.5
29.7
Share of non-oil sector in GDP
%
16.8
19.5
20.4
Import of goods and services
mln. USD
6,312
7,003
8,133
Import of non-oil products and services
mln. USD
2,779
3,418
4,779
Nominal growth
%
29.2
23.0
39.8
Share of non-oil sector in GDP
%
46.6
45.9
51.9
Foreign direct investments, receipt
mln. USD
4,698
4,475
4,469
Non-oil sector
mln. USD
104
230
368
Oil sector
mln. USD
1,675
4,209
7,438
Repatriation of gain in oil sector
mln. USD
521
1,422
2,375
Repatriation of capital in oil sector
mln. USD
1,154
2,787
5,064

 

 

 

 

UNIT

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

GDP in market prices

mln. manat

8529.9

12522.4

18746.2

25228.1

32665.2

mln. USD

8679.9

13321.7

20985.3

29403.4

39594.1

real growth rate

%

110.1

126.4

134.5

125.0

120.5

deflator

%

108.4

116.2

111.3

107.7

107.4

special weight of private sector

%

73.5

76.0

81.0

84.0

86.0

Non-oil sector, GDP, in market prices

mln. manat

5858.2

7001.5

8654.4

11131.0

13992.2

mln. USD

5961.2

7448.4

9688.2

12973.2

16960.2

real growth rate

%

113.2

108.3

111.9

111.3

111.6

deflator

%

103.6

110.4

110.5

115.6

112.6

Oil sector, GDP, in main prices

mln. manat

2672.4

5520.9

10091.7

14097.1

18673.0

mln. USD

2719.4

5873.3

11297.1

16430.2

22633.9

real growth rate

%

103.0

166.3

163.2

136.8

128.9

deflator

%

120.7

124.2

112.0

102.1

102.7

neft sektorunun ÜDM-də payı

%

31.3

44.1

53.8

55.9

57.2

GDP production structure:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Industry

mln. manat

3268.4

6190.4

10731.9

14926.1

19671.5

mln. USD

3325.9

6585.5

12013.8

17396.4

23844.3

real growth rate

%

104.3

156.9

157.6

133.1

126.4

deflator

%

117.5

120.7

110.0

104.5

104.2

including:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-oil industry

mln. manat

596.7

669.5

640.2

829.0

998.6

mln. USD

607.2

712.2

716.6

966.2

1210.4

real growth rate

%

110.1

114.8

111.3

107.9

108.3

deflator

%

104.8

97.7

85.9

120.0

111.2

Agriculture

mln. manat

937.3

1145.5

1329.5

1564.6

1943.2

mln. USD

953.8

1218.6

1488.3

1823.5

2355.4

real growth rate

%

105.0

107.5

100.9

104.0

108.0

deflator

%

100.5

113.7

115.0

113.2

115.0

Construction

mln. manat

1062.1

1171.6

1445.8

1802.4

2383.7

mln. USD

1080.8

1246.4

1618.5

2100.7

2889.3

real growth rate

%

136.9

102.0

108.5

116.0

115.0

deflator

%

96.7

108.1

113.7

107.5

115.0

Trade

mln. manat

655.5

832.0

1106.8

1484.6

1997.5

mln. USD

667.0

885.1

1239.0

1730.3

2421.2

real growth rate

%

113.0

113.2

117.8

117.2

117.0

deflator

%

114.4

112.1

112.9

114.5

115.0

Transport

mln. manat

613.9

670.5

873.0

1054.8

1181.4

mln. USD

624.7

713.3

977.3

1229.4

1432.0

real growth rate

%

104.6

111.5

133.3

113.6

112.0

deflator

%

104.3

98.0

97.7

100.0

100.0

Communication

mln. manat

198.5

261.6

370.5

470.6

588.3

mln. USD

202.0

278.3

414.8

548.5

713.0

real growth rate

%

135.8

136.0

124.0

132.0

125.0

deflator

%

96.6

96.9

114.2

96.2

100.0

Social and other services

mln. manat

1178.5

1304.3

1865.1

2084.6

2529.1

mln. USD

1199.2

1387.6

2087.9

2429.6

3065.6

real growth rate

%

104.0

101.5

107.7

105.4

105.5

deflator

%

111.2

109.0

132.8

106.0

115.0

Output and import net taxes

mln. manat

615.7

946.5

1023.6

1840.4

2370.4

mln. USD

626.5

1000.6

1145.8

2145.0

2873.3

GDP structure (in current prices)

%

100.0

100.0

100

100

100

Industry

%

38.3

49.4

57.2

59.2

60.2

Agriculture

%

11.0

9.1

7.1

6.2

5.9

Construction

%

12.5

9.4

7.7

7.1

7.3

Services

%

31.0

24.5

22.5

20.2

19.3

Trade

%

7.7

6.6

5.9

5.9

6.1

Transport

%

7.2

5.4

4.7

4.2

3.6

Communication

%

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

Social and informal services

%

13.8

10.4

9.9

8.3

7.7

Output and import net taxes

%

7.2

7.6

5.5

7.3

7.3

INCOMES OF POPULATION AND PRICES

Population (up to the end of the period, including occupied lands)

thousand persons

8347.0

8436.4

8533.0

8630.0

8723.3

Population (up to the end of the period, without occupied lands)

thousand persons

8197.0

8286.4

8364.6

8463.1

8556.4

Per capita GDP

manat

1042.0

1513.6

2241.1

2980.9

3817.6

USD

1060.3

1610.2

2508.8

3474.3

4627.4

Retail trade turnover

mln. manat

3729.9

4622.6

5760

7591

10037

mln. USD

3795.5

4917.6

6448.3

8847.8

12165.6

real growth rate

%

113.0

113.2

113.5

115.3

117.0

price index

%

107.8

109.5

109.8

114.3

113.0

Incomes of population

mln. manat

6349.0

8063.0

10196.4

14305.6

18047.9

mln. USD

6460.6

8577.7

11414.3

16673.2

21876.3

Nominal growth

%

123.2

127.0

126.5

140.3

126.2

Average monthly wage

manat

96.7

117.9

150.6

213.9

277.9

USD

98.4

125.4

168.6

249.3

336.9

Nominal growth

%

124.9

121.9

127.8

142.0

130.0

CPI, inflation (average annual)

%

106.7

109.6

108.3

116.7

113.0

FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENT BALANCE

Current accounts balance

mln. USD

-2589.2

167.3

3707.6

9018.9

9266.9

Foreign trade balance (by goods)

mln. USD

161.3

3298.7

7745.3

15224.3

18041.4

Export

mln. USD

3743.0

7649.0

13014.6

21269.3

23941.4

oil-gas sector

mln. USD

3233.0

6883.0

12075.3

20190.0

22619.7

other sectors

mln. USD

510.0

766.0

940.0

1079.3

1321.8

Import

mln. USD

-3582.0

-4350.0

-5269.3

-6045.0

-5900.0

oil-gas sector

mln. USD

-1624.0

-1927.0

-1751.9

-1292.1

-867.3

other sectors

mln. USD

-1958.0

-2423.0

-3517.5

-4752.9

-5032.7

Capital and finance based operations balance

mln. USD

2973.0

441.0

-1990.0

-6121.0

559.7

Mistakes and omissions

mln. USD

46.6

45.9

-256.1

-360.0

-198.3

Changes in resources

mln. USD

-384.0

-608.0

-1717.0

-2898.0

-9628.2

 

 

 

 

UNIT

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

GDP in market prices

mln. manat

8529.9

12522.4

18746.2

25228.1

32665.2

mln. USD

8679.9

13321.7

20985.3

29403.4

39594.1

real growth rate

%

110.1

126.4

134.5

125.0

120.5

deflator

%

108.4

116.2

111.3

107.7

107.4

special weight of private sector

%

73.5

76.0

81.0

84.0

86.0

Non-oil sector, GDP, in market prices

mln. manat

5858.2

7001.5

8654.4

11131.0

13992.2

mln. USD

5961.2

7448.4

9688.2

12973.2

16960.2

real growth rate

%

113.2

108.3

111.9

111.3

111.6

deflator

%

103.6

110.4

110.5

115.6

112.6

Oil sector, GDP, in main prices

mln. manat

2672.4

5520.9

10091.7

14097.1

18673.0

mln. USD

2719.4

5873.3

11297.1

16430.2

22633.9

real growth rate

%

103.0

166.3

163.2

136.8

128.9

deflator

%

120.7

124.2

112.0

102.1

102.7

neft sektorunun ÜDM-də payı

%

31.3

44.1

53.8

55.9

57.2

GDP production structure:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Industry

mln. manat

3268.4

6190.4

10731.9

14926.1

19671.5

mln. USD

3325.9

6585.5

12013.8

17396.4

23844.3

real growth rate

%

104.3

156.9

157.6

133.1

126.4

deflator

%

117.5

120.7

110.0

104.5

104.2

including:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-oil industry

mln. manat

596.7

669.5

640.2

829.0

998.6

mln. USD

607.2

712.2

716.6

966.2

1210.4

real growth rate

%

110.1

114.8

111.3

107.9

108.3

deflator

%

104.8

97.7

85.9

120.0

111.2

Agriculture

mln. manat

937.3

1145.5

1329.5

1564.6

1943.2

mln. USD

953.8

1218.6

1488.3

1823.5

2355.4

real growth rate

%

105.0

107.5

100.9

104.0

108.0

deflator

%

100.5

113.7

115.0

113.2

115.0

Construction

mln. manat

1062.1

1171.6

1445.8

1802.4

2383.7

mln. USD

1080.8

1246.4

1618.5

2100.7

2889.3

real growth rate

%

136.9

102.0

108.5

116.0

115.0

deflator

%

96.7

108.1

113.7

107.5

115.0

Trade

mln. manat

655.5

832.0

1106.8

1484.6

1997.5

mln. USD

667.0

885.1

1239.0

1730.3

2421.2

real growth rate

%

113.0

113.2

117.8

117.2

117.0

deflator

%

114.4

112.1

112.9

114.5

115.0

Transport

mln. manat

613.9

670.5

873.0

1054.8

1181.4

mln. USD

624.7

713.3

977.3

1229.4

1432.0

real growth rate

%

104.6

111.5

133.3

113.6

112.0

deflator

%

104.3

98.0

97.7

100.0

100.0

Communication

mln. manat

198.5

261.6

370.5

470.6

588.3

mln. USD

202.0

278.3

414.8

548.5

713.0

real growth rate

%

135.8

136.0

124.0

132.0

125.0

deflator

%

96.6

96.9

114.2

96.2

100.0

Social and other services

mln. manat

1178.5

1304.3

1865.1

2084.6

2529.1

mln. USD

1199.2

1387.6

2087.9

2429.6

3065.6

real growth rate

%

104.0

101.5

107.7

105.4

105.5

deflator

%

111.2

109.0

132.8

106.0

115.0

Output and import net taxes

mln. manat

615.7

946.5

1023.6

1840.4

2370.4

mln. USD

626.5

1000.6

1145.8

2145.0

2873.3

GDP structure (in current prices)

%

100.0

100.0

100

100

100

Industry

%

38.3

49.4

57.2

59.2

60.2

Agriculture

%

11.0

9.1

7.1

6.2

5.9

Construction

%

12.5

9.4

7.7

7.1

7.3

Services

%

31.0

24.5

22.5

20.2

19.3

Trade

%

7.7

6.6

5.9

5.9

6.1

Transport

%

7.2

5.4

4.7

4.2

3.6

Communication

%

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

Social and informal services

%

13.8

10.4

9.9

8.3

7.7

Output and import net taxes

%

7.2

7.6

5.5

7.3

7.3

INCOMES OF POPULATION AND PRICES

Population (up to the end of the period, including occupied lands)

thousand persons

8347.0

8436.4

8533.0

8630.0

8723.3

Population (up to the end of the period, without occupied lands)

thousand persons

8197.0

8286.4

8364.6

8463.1

8556.4

Per capita GDP

manat

1042.0

1513.6

2241.1

2980.9

3817.6

USD

1060.3

1610.2

2508.8

3474.3

4627.4

Retail trade turnover

mln. manat

3729.9

4622.6

5760

7591

10037

mln. USD

3795.5

4917.6

6448.3

8847.8

12165.6

real growth rate

%

113.0

113.2

113.5

115.3

117.0

price index

%

107.8

109.5

109.8

114.3

113.0

Incomes of population

mln. manat

6349.0

8063.0

10196.4

14305.6

18047.9

mln. USD

6460.6

8577.7

11414.3

16673.2

21876.3

Nominal growth

%

123.2

127.0

126.5

140.3

126.2

Average monthly wage

manat

96.7

117.9

150.6

213.9

277.9

USD

98.4

125.4

168.6

249.3

336.9

Nominal growth

%

124.9

121.9

127.8

142.0

130.0

CPI, inflation (average annual)

%

106.7

109.6

108.3

116.7

113.0

FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENT BALANCE

Current accounts balance

mln. USD

-2589.2

167.3

3707.6

9018.9

9266.9

Foreign trade balance (by goods)

mln. USD

161.3

3298.7

7745.3

15224.3

18041.4

Export

mln. USD

3743.0

7649.0

13014.6

21269.3

23941.4

oil-gas sector

mln. USD

3233.0

6883.0

12075.3

20190.0

22619.7

other sectors

mln. USD

510.0

766.0

940.0

1079.3

1321.8

Import

mln. USD

-3582.0

-4350.0

-5269.3

-6045.0

-5900.0

oil-gas sector

mln. USD

-1624.0

-1927.0

-1751.9

-1292.1

-867.3

other sectors

mln. USD

-1958.0

-2423.0

-3517.5

-4752.9

-5032.7

Capital and finance based operations balance

mln. USD

2973.0

441.0

-1990.0

-6121.0

559.7

Mistakes and omissions

mln. USD

46.6

45.9

-256.1

-360.0

-198.3

Changes in resources

mln. USD

-384.0

-608.0

-1717.0

-2898.0

-9628.2

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